How to Read the Markets for Signs of War
And How to Trade It Before the Headlines Catch Up
When the next major war breaks out — or when global tensions suddenly spike — the markets will tell you before the politicians do. And while President Trump may have been quick on the trigger with his tweets, the markets usually fire off warning shots first.
We’ve seen it again and again: before the invasion of Ukraine, before the U.S. strikes in Iraq, even now with rising threats of a regional war between Israel and Iran — markets react first. Often days or weeks before the headlines catch up.
Most retail traders watch the news first. Professionals watch the tape first.
Let’s unpack the early signals you can spot on the charts.
In this post, you’ll find my ichimoku technical analysis charts and key signals to watch across:
✅ Gold, Silver, DXY, U.S. Treasuries
✅ Oil, Natural Gas (TTF), Defense Stocks
✅ Baltic Dry Index, High-Yield Credit Stress
✅ Commodities: Wheat, Copper & more
If you want to stay one step ahead of the next crisis — read on, study these charts, and prepare. The next major conflict will first be announced by the tape — not the TV.
🚩 1. Safe-Haven Assets Surge
When war is coming, the first knee-jerk reaction is a flood into safe-havens. You’ll see:
Gold and Silver break out (especially if it’s a geopolitical move, not just macro).
Gold/USD - Daily Chart Gold sold off in the aftermath of the June 13 conflict between Israel and Iran — a move we warned about in advance in our Weekly Macro Report. In times like these, missing the early signals can prove costly.
Silver/USD - Daily Chart Silver rallied strong after the conflict between Israel and Iran started. Silver is still on track to reach our Q2 target at 38$.
U.S. Treasuries Drop (10Y yields drops as money shelters in bonds).
US 10YR Yield - Daily Chart US 10 YR dropped slightly after the June 13 conflict between Israel and Iran started. As war continues to escalate, we should see this market drop further to the 3.678 level.
DXY strengthens — typically the dollar often soars as global investors seek temporary safety.
DXY - Daily Chart The false breakdown, and recent DXY strength on the pullback was also anticipated in our Weekly Macro Report. Geopolitical tensions could cause short to medium-term sheltering in the USD. Next Resistance Level to Watch 101.51.
🚩 2. Energy Markets Go Wild
Wars threaten energy supplies. When oil and gas markets spike out of normal ranges — with no OPEC news or macro trigger — it’s often a geopolitical tell:
Oil will shoot higher — on supply fear.
WTI Crude Oil - Daily Chart Oil Double Bottomed in May and spiked on the June 13 conflict and concerns about the flow of Oil through the Strait of Hormuz. As called out in our macro report, we were long oil after identifying the Double bottom last month, and Ichimoku signal conditions.
Natural Gas (especially TTF Europe) explodes — if pipelines or shipping is at risk.
Natural Gas Futures formed a W-wave, gapped up on June 13, and rallied strong throughout the past week. It appears this is the start of a new Bull trend on the Daily Timeframe, and I expect this market to consolidate briefly before reaching the 42-44.75 target levels.
🚩 3. Defense Stocks Rally
One of the strongest tells: U.S. defense contractors surge ahead of the market:
ETFs: ITA (Aerospace & Defense), XAR.
Names to watch: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC).
When these stocks break out while SPX is flat or falling — it often signals insider awareness of conflict risk.
iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has been a strong Bull trend on the daily timeframe since April 24. We should look for some consolidation now, and perhaps a shallow pull back. I will be monitoring the 175.60 support Level very carefully and will update my subscribers if any trades take shape.
🚩 4. Risk Assets Sell Off
War fears trigger a global de-risking:
SPX / Nasdaq drop on volume.
EM currencies implode (Turkish Lira, Korean Won, EM ETF flows reverse).
Shipping rates surge — especially Baltic Dry Index — if war could block key trade routes.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—a leading indicator that tracks the cost of shipping raw materials such as iron ore, coal, and grains—surged on the week of June 9 amid growing fears that the escalating conflict could shut down the Strait of Hormuz. The index reflects demand for shipping capacity versus supply of dry bulk carriers, and sharp moves often signal global trade stress or disruptions in key routes. A higher low has recently formed above the key 530 support level. Ichimoku cloud is also signaling the potential start of a new bullish trend on the weekly timeframe.
🚩 5. Credit Markets Tighten
Smart money also watches credit stress as a war signal:
High-yield bond spreads widen fast.
CDS (credit default swaps) spike — on sovereign bonds of at-risk countries.
On June 13, following a brief sell-off, the SPX/HYG ratio spiked noticeably amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. This ratio has been in a steady uptrend since May, indicating that high-yield bonds have been underperforming the S&P 500. Such a move signals rising credit stress as investors move away from riskier assets amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty. Credit market shifts like this often serve as early warning signs, reflecting growing market fear well before the headlines catch up.
🚩 6. Unusual Volume in Commodities
Last but not least: if insiders are bracing for war, you’ll often see:
Copper, wheat, nickel, palladium — spike on supply fears.
Watch futures volumes on CME / LME for sudden, outsized buying.
Wheat futures gapped up sharply following the outbreak of conflict on June 13, with strong follow-through in the days that followed. This is not an encouraging signal for peace or for any easing of inflationary pressures. I expect commodity prices to continue moving into broader bull markets as geopolitical risks persist.
Final Thoughts from the Rabbit Hole
As we discussed in last week’s Macro Markets Report, many key markets are now teetering on the edge of major momentum shifts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a false flag event or renewed push for war — as the current monetary system increasingly depends on crisis to justify more money printing.
The next major conflict will make headlines on TV — but it will be announced first on the charts. You just need to know where to look.
I strongly encourage you to hold part of your wealth outside the financial system — in precious metals and other real assets — and to stay prepared for worst-case scenarios.
And if you found this post valuable — please help spread the word. The more people who know what to watch before the next crisis hits, the better prepared we all will be.
Share this article with a friend who needs to see the signals first.
Stay Vigilant,
-Tyler