This is one of the best and most insightful posts I have read in years. I don't always agree with Grey Rabbit's posts but in this case I believe he has hit the nail on the head.
"Markets don’t just rise… they accelerate. Gains compress into shorter timeframes, participation broadens, and risk becomes harder to see… not because it disappears, but because it feels like confirmation." The greatest expression of what happened during the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Only thing is its happening now. Keep up the great commentary! Pearse.
The convergence of RSI extremes with put/call compression is worth taking seriously even if you're structurally bullish -- it's not a timing signal but it does argue for tightening stops on extended names rather than adding exposure. The piece I keep coming back to in blow-off setups is the leadership rotation: in 1999 you saw the S&P peak while small-caps had already been in a stealth bear market for 18 months.
I think this final phase will fool everyone. The tides of liquidity will NOT rise all boats and there will be clear winners in a few select asset classes. Capital will rotate so fast everyone will chase green candles and get crushed while the banks siphon every drop before resetting the whole system. The goal is inflationary nightmare without a safe haven to make everyone beg for the new currency. We have to trade fiat denominated assets for real things until it’s too late and we rent them forever.
This is one of the best and most insightful posts I have read in years. I don't always agree with Grey Rabbit's posts but in this case I believe he has hit the nail on the head.
"Markets don’t just rise… they accelerate. Gains compress into shorter timeframes, participation broadens, and risk becomes harder to see… not because it disappears, but because it feels like confirmation." The greatest expression of what happened during the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Only thing is its happening now. Keep up the great commentary! Pearse.
Thank you Pearse appreciate the feedback and glad you enjoyed the piece! 👍🏻🙏🏻
The convergence of RSI extremes with put/call compression is worth taking seriously even if you're structurally bullish -- it's not a timing signal but it does argue for tightening stops on extended names rather than adding exposure. The piece I keep coming back to in blow-off setups is the leadership rotation: in 1999 you saw the S&P peak while small-caps had already been in a stealth bear market for 18 months.
Thank you Ghost Alpha for the tip, I will check it out!
Thank you for the great read! I'll be following your work through this cycle.
That’s priced like liquidity is still the backstop. The variable is what flips that expectation.
Brilliant article Grey Rabbit. You're my go to for technical analysis inspiration. Lines up with my own projections too.
I think this final phase will fool everyone. The tides of liquidity will NOT rise all boats and there will be clear winners in a few select asset classes. Capital will rotate so fast everyone will chase green candles and get crushed while the banks siphon every drop before resetting the whole system. The goal is inflationary nightmare without a safe haven to make everyone beg for the new currency. We have to trade fiat denominated assets for real things until it’s too late and we rent them forever.
Exactly what smart investors are looking for - I am - at this point! ( not smart but looking).