The Great Breakout: Silver Leads, Bitcoin Follows— Macro Market Report

Key Charts: Stocks, Oil, Gold, Silver, Miners, DXY, and Bitcoin — What to Watch This Week

🌎 Big Picture

Markets entered Q3 amid heightened volatility as fresh U.S. tariffs targeting more than 20 countries collided with solid corporate earnings and resilient macro data. Despite trade tensions, equity markets held near record highs, supported by strong Q2 results from tech, financials, and industrials. Bond yields edged higher on robust inflation readings and steady job growth, while economists lowered recession odds but cautioned that tariffs pose a growing risk to price stability and corporate margins.

China’s mid-year GDP growth of 5.3% reflected front-loaded demand ahead of tariff implementation, though consumer activity showed signs of softness. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley warned that tariff-driven cost pressures could emerge more clearly in Q3, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.

Commodities rallied broadly, led by oil and copper amid supply concerns and currency moves. Most notably, Silver surged through decade-old resistance, marking a historic breakout on the quarterly chart fueled by industrial demand, safe-haven flows, and investor rotation into undervalued hard assets.

Bitcoin also stood out with a nearly 9% weekly gain, reaching fresh all-time highs as macro uncertainty and inflows boosted appetite for this high-beta digital asset.

As earnings season accelerates and geopolitical risks simmer, markets brace for a critical period of potential trend shifts and cross-asset rotation.

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Key Market Themes

• Trade & Tariff Volatility

  • U.S. imposed new 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, with additional duties on Canada, Brazil, copper, and pharmaceuticals—delayed to August 1—heightening global risk.

  • Tensions triggered market jitters, dampening European assets and elevating commodity prices like copper's record highs.

• Earnings Stress-Test

  • Q2 earnings season looms—with expectations of +4.8% year-over-year growth, down from +13% in Q1—forcing markets to weigh tariffs against solid earnings.

  • Banks, consumer staples, and industrials report soon; airlines like Delta supported broader sentiment.

• Fund Flows & Asset Rotation

  • Global equity funds saw $10.2 bn in inflows (week to July 9), led by tech/AI stocks; bond funds extended a 12-week winning streak, while commodities saw mixed flows.

• Equity & Yield Movements

  • Major U.S. indices pulled back modestly: Dow –1%, S&P500 –0.3%, Nasdaq –0.1%, ending two-week gains.

  • Bond yields rose slightly—2Y ~3.88%, 10Y ~4.35%—driven by strong jobs data and tariff-led risk shifts.

• Commodities & Currency

  • Oil rallied as OPEC+ cuts coincided with tariff-driven dollar softness—Brent pushing to ~$78–81/barrel.

  • Copper surged on tariff fear; gold/precious metals also saw inflows.

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🗓️ Economic Calendar – July 13–18, 2025

• July 15: Chinese GDP, Canadian CPI, U.S. CPI, BOE Speech

• July 16: GBP CPI, USD PPI

• July 17: AUD & GBP Employment Change, USD Retail Sales

• July 18: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

• Ongoing: Q2 Earnings

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🧾 TL;DR – Week of July 13

🎯 Top Movers:

• 🥈 Silver: Broke out above $38, confirming a historic move. Watch retest of $37.31.

• ₿ Bitcoin: Cleared $112K; Henka-Bi on July 18 could signal next leg.

• 🛢️ Oil: Trend reversal confirmed. Bought dips near $69 support.

🛑 Caution Flags:

• 📈 S&P 500: Breakout can it be sustained?

• 💵 DXY: Watching for retracement toward 101.51–103.73.

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📊 Featured Free Chart Breakdown

Silver/USD (Daily Chart)

• Trend: Bullish

• Support: $37.31

• Resistance: $39.33

• Entry Zone: Buy retest near $37.31 and anything lower.

• Watch: Henka-Bi Time Cycle July 18

Silver/USD - Daily Chart

Our $38 target was reached last week during a historic breakout, confirming this is more than a short-term rally—it marks a significant shift on Silver’s quarterly chart. In my view, this trend is still in its early innings and gaining momentum.

The critical level now is the $37.31 breakout price—a clean retest and hold here would strengthen the bullish case and keep the upward trend intact. Our next Henka-bi is on July 18th, a key day where we should see the market either continue its momentum or retrace. Our next upside target is our V Target at $39.33.

Stay tuned and be sure to share & subscribe, as I’ll soon share my detailed trade plan for navigating the next phase and seizing what could be a generational wealth-building opportunity in Silver.

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