Sound Money vs. Digital Fiat: Silver Surges as the U.S. Regulates Stablecoins— Macro Market Report
Key Charts: Stocks, Oil, Gold, Silver, Miners, DXY, and Bitcoin — What to Watch This Week
🌎 Big Picture
Markets fluctuated between optimism and caution as U.S. equities stayed close to record highs. Bond yields rose on persistent inflation worries, boosting gold and silver as safe-haven assets. Russia’s decision to trade gold on the St. Petersburg exchange poses a direct challenge to Western pricing dominance. Meanwhile, the U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins—marking a potential milestone for crypto adoption despite continued skepticism around fiat-backed digital currencies. Critics like myself remain unconvinced that digitally backing dying fiat currencies will bring any real “stability” to the legacy reserve system.
🔑 Key Market Themes
Trade Tensions & Equity Resilience
U.S. imposed 30–50% tariffs on imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico, including copper, autos, and pharmaceuticals—stocks wavered but held firm near all-time levels.
Tech sector resilience, led by Nvidia’s continued surge to a $4 trillion valuation, softened market volatility.
Crypto Week & GENIUS Act Passed
The House passed three crypto bills (stablecoins, CBDC ban, market-structure clarity), marking congressional bipartisan movement.
On July 18, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, introducing stablecoin regulation with strict reserve requirements, monthly audits, and consumer protections.
The law offers clarity on digital asset roles, giving banks and fintech firms a clear path to issue dollar-backed tokens—and positions the U.S. as a global leader in this space.
Inflation & Bond Market Pressure
Core CPI: ~2.9% YoY; Headline CPI: ~2.7%.
10-year Treasury yield remained below 5%, while the 2-year yield edged up to around 3.9%, amid inflation concerns driven by tariffs.
Earnings & Fund Flow Dynamics
S&P 500 slipped ~0.3%, Nasdaq down ~0.2–0.4%, and Dow off ~1%.
PepsiCo rose ~7.5%; Lucid soared ~36%; Elevance and Abbott fell after mixed outlooks.
Outflows from small/mid‑caps offset by $1.7 billion inflow into tech funds.
Commodities & Currencies
Silver hit a 14‑year high (~$38/oz); copper rallied on tariff fears.
Gold reached 3‑week highs on geopolitical and inflation hedges.
Oil retreated back from early‑week gains (~$66 Crude) on ceasefire optimism and a stronger dollar.
🗓️ Economic Calendar – July 20–25, 2025
July 21: NZD CPI
July 22: AUD RBA Minutes, ECB Bank Lending Survey
July 23: U.S. PMIs, Eurozone PMIs
July 24: ECB Rate Decision, Eurozone PMIs, U.S. PMIs
July 25: Tokyo CPI, GBP Retail Sales
Ongoing: Q2 Earnings Reports – Big Tech begins next week
🧾 TL;DR – Week of July 13
🎯 Top Movers:
🥈 Silver: Hovered around $38, confirming a historic move. Watch retest of $37.31.
₿ Bitcoin: Cleared $123K; Henka-Bi on July 25 could signal next leg.
🛢️ Oil: Trend reversal confirmed. Bought dips under $69 support.
🛑 Caution Flags:
📈 S&P 500: Breakout can it be sustained?
💵 DXY: Watching for retracement toward 101.51–103.73.
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📊 Featured Free Chart Breakdown
Bitcoin (Daily Chart)
Trend: Bullish
Support: $112,000
Resistance: $123,236+
Entry Zone: Await breakout retest at 112,000
Watch: Henka-Bi July 25
Bitcoin recently broke out of resistance at $112,000.
As noted last week, false starts remain a key risk at this stage of the cycle, so patience is essential. I’m watching for a clean retest of that breakout level to validate upside continuation.
For those already positioned, the next major upside target remains $150,000. That said, we could still see a retracement toward $104,594 in the short to medium term, especially if the market fails to reclaim key levels.
The upcoming Henka-Bi on July 25th will be a critical timing point—watch for either a trend continuation to the downside or a bullish reversal signal.
Key support to hold:
$93,076 – the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A decisive close below this level would break market structure and open the door to deeper downside.
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