Gold Wars, Crypto Bans & Hard Hats at the Fed – Macro Market Report

Key Charts: Stocks, Oil, Gold, Silver, Miners, DXY, and Bitcoin — What to Watch This Week

Jul 28, 2025

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🌎 Big Picture

Last week’s major geopolitical developments centered on rising global tensions and shifting financial paradigms. Russia formally launched its gold trading exchange in St. Petersburg, directly challenging the Western-dominated LBMA pricing regime and signaling a push toward alternative monetary systems among BRICS nations.

In a major escalation, China enacted a full ban on cryptocurrency ownership, extending its prior crackdowns on trading and mining to now include private holdings. The People’s Bank of China’s new policy effectively criminalizes decentralized digital assets within the mainland, reinforcing its push for full monetary control through the digital yuan and yuan‑pegged stablecoins.

Meanwhile, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hezbollah made modest progress, offering temporary relief to oil markets.

Domestically, President Trump’s signing of the GENIUS Act underscored U.S. ambitions to dominate the global digital currency framework, even as rival powers move to detach from the dollar‑centric system.

In a scene that felt ripped from an awkward episode of The Office, Trump, a guy named Tim (who they forgot to give a hardhat) and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell toured the Federal Reserve’s ongoing headquarters renovation in matching white hard hats. Trump claimed the project had ballooned to $3.1 billion, while Powell firmly corrected him, noting the correct figure was $2.5 billion and that Trump was mistakenly including a building completed five years ago.

“It’s a building that’s being built,” Trump said.
“No... we finished Martin five years ago,” Powell replied, deadpan.

The tension was palpable, and Trump pressed Powell again on interest rates, while reporters captured a moment that seemed more mockumentary than monetary policy.

🔑 Key Market Themes

1. Trade Tensions & Equity Resilience

Markets remained relatively calm even as a U.S. tariff deadline loomed; equities held firm near record levels. President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Scotland, and agreed a US tariff on all EU goods of 15%.
The recent trade deal between the U.S. and Japan includes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, a $550 billion investment commitment from Japan, and expanded access for American goods, marking a significant shift in trade relations.
HSBC flagged major headwinds: rising Treasury yields, political pressure on the Fed, and the fragility of AI-driven bull sentiment.

2. Inflation, Fed Uncertainty & Bond Market Impact

Bond yields pushed upward—long-end yields remained elevated as inflation persisted and political rhetoric undermined Fed independence.
Market pricing currently anticipates as many as one Fed rate cut in 2025, with more likely in 2026.
The upcoming FOMC meeting loomed large, with investor sentiment hinging on signals from Chair Powell about future rate direction.

3. GENIUS Act & Crypto Reform

On July 18, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, the first comprehensive U.S. federal legislation governing stablecoins.
Stablecoin issuers are now mandated to hold full 1:1 reserves in liquid assets and submit monthly audits; the law prohibits interest on stablecoins, prompting a rise in Ether as an alternative yield asset.
Crypto-linked equities rallied post‑law—Coinbase and other major players surged on regulatory clarity.
Experts suggest that stablecoin circulation could expand by up to $75 billion, propelling broader adoption across retail and fintech use cases.

4. Equity Flows & Sector Performance

Domestic equities showed resilience: tech stocks led gains fueled by AI optimism, while small/mid caps underperformed modestly. International equities outpaced U.S. markets—with MSCI EM up ~6% in June and non-U.S. developed markets +2.2%—as emerging markets continued drawing capital from Europe and overseas funds.
The dollar’s decline boosted foreign equities and bonds, contributing to a trend of $116 billion inflows into international funds compared to just $33 billion to U.S. equities.

5. Commodities & Safe-Haven Assets

Elevated yields and trade uncertainty helped boost demand for safe‑havens: gold and silver gained on geopolitical risk and inflation hedging. Crypto adoption as a store of value caught renewed interest post‑GENIUS Act.
Commodities like copper rallied amid trade tariff speculation and supply chain risks, while oil was pressured by optimism around extended U.S.–China and U.S.–EU trade truces.

🗓️ Economic Calendar – July 28 to August 1, 2025

July 29 (Tuesday)
• U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings
• Ongoing: Q2 earnings season – major tech and industrial firms report
• India: Dividend/split/bonus record dates for 100+ stocks

July 30 (Wednesday)
• U.S. ADP Employment Change, Q2 Advance GDP, Pending Home Sales
• Germany: Retail Sales, Preliminary Q2 GDP
• Eurozone: Preliminary Q2 GDP
• Australia: Q2 CPI (Headline & Trimmed Mean)
• FOMC Meeting Begins – Fed expected to hold rates steady
• Powell press conference (post‑decision)

July 31 (Thursday)
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims
• Eurozone: Unemployment Rate
• Germany: CPI Flash Estimate
• Australia: Retail Sales
• Japan: BOJ Rate Decision
• China: NBS Manufacturing & Non‑Manufacturing PMIs
• Continued Q2 earnings releases (including semiconductors and healthcare)

August 1 (Friday)
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (est. +102,000), Unemployment Rate
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• Eurozone: Flash CPI Estimate
• China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI

🧾 TL;DR – Week of July 21

🎯 Top Movers:

🥈 Silver: Hovered around $38, confirming a historic move. Watch retest of $37.31.
₿ Bitcoin: Look for retest of Support level.
🛢️ Oil: Trend reversal confirmed. Bought dips under $69 support.

🛑 Caution Flags:

📈 S&P 500: Breakout can it be sustained?
💵 DXY: Watching for retracement toward 101.51–103.73.

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📊 Featured Free Chart Breakdown

Silver/USD (Daily Chart)

Trend: Bullish
Support: $37.50
Resistance: $39.52
Entry Zone: Buy retest near $37.50 and anything lower.
Watch: Henka-Bi Time Cycle July 31

Our $38 target was reached during a historic breakout earlier this month, confirming that this move is more than a short-term rally—it marks a structural shift clearly visible on Silver’s quarterly chart. In my view, we’re still in the early stages of ignition, and momentum continues to build.

The key breakout level to watch now is $39.52. A clean move above that level could trigger the next leg higher. The upcoming Henka-Bi on July 31 may act as a turning point—either resolving the current consolidation or ushering in a short-term pullback. I expect the consolidation to be finished by August 22nd. The next major upside target is the N-Target at $40.94.

I’ve just posted my full Roadmap for Silver’s Bull Market, outlining my long-term thesis, key levels, and strategic outlook. Be sure to check that out for the big picture view.